When you create an A/B test, it can be helpful to know approximately how long you'll need to test your results. Although it's impossible to know exactly how long the process will take, there are several attributes and thresholds that you can use to get a better idea of the test's running timeline.
Collecting website data
As an example, you want to test to see if a different banner design on your homepage improves conversion over the existing banner design. Before you create your test, examine your website's analytics to obtain the following values for an average day:
- Website visitors to your homepage
- Website visitors that click the existing banner
For our example, if (on average) your website has 1,000 visitors and 50 visitors click the banner, you have a 5% conversion rate.
To determine if the new banner has better results, you'll need to set an appropriate threshold for success. Is the new banner better than the existing one if conversion increases to 6%, or would it only be successful if it were over 10%? Raising conversion to 6% represents a 20% lift or increase in Average Differential Return (indicated by the symbol α - alpha), while raising it to 10% represents a 100% lift.
Calculating required website visitors
After you collect your website's statistics, use an online calculator (such as this one) to help you determine how many visitors it will take to ensure that your A/B test results are statistically significant. Based on the previous example, to see a 20% lift (6% conversion increase), your website requires approximately 7,663 visitors per variation (or 15,326 total visitors for the two banners). At a rate of approximately 1,000 visitors per day, you can expect that the testing will take two weeks until you can be sure that the success threshold is met or not.
Although you can stop your A/B test before the required number of website visitors view your banners, doing so can affect the reliability of your results. Ensuring that your results are statistically significant can indicate that the test's results are real values and not a random effect.
The most common number to use for statistical significance is 95%, which is also the default in the linked online calculator, and is represented by an α (alpha) of 5%.
The other percentage on the calculator page is the statistical power that we want to have with this test, which indicates the percent of time that the minimum effect size will be detected, assuming it exists. In this calculation, that minimum effect that we want to find is the change from a 5% conversion to a 6% conversion. You can change the percentage to have more statistical power or more statistical significance if you desire.